Stochastic Co-variant Rainfall Extension
October 2025
A novel approach to extending short climate records using extreme value theory and conditional probability modeling. This method extends 52-year Virtual Climate Station rainfall records to 170+ years by leveraging historical gauge data, operating at the 19-month timescale critical for drought characterization. The approach combines Generalised Pareto Distribution tail modeling with empirical resampling and analog pattern matching to preserve both extreme event characteristics and seasonal variability.